Geopolitical Risks Push Up Oil Prices, U.S.-Iran Confrontation May Escalate, Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Extension Fails to Ease Geopolitical Premium

Crude oil prices surged amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, raising concerns about the security of the Strait of Hormuz. While Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps vessel transits increased slightly, the IEA reported over 1 billion barrels of supply losses and 14 million barrels per day in forced production shutdowns, indicating a significant supply shock. U.S. President Trump's stance further fueled geopolitical uncertainty.