JP Morgan’s Oil Price Forecast Amid the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The near-complete halt of vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 created a supply shock unprecedented in modern history, exceeding previous geopolitical oil shocks by a significant margin. JP Morgan delayed publishing oil price forecasts for two months, citing the limitations of historical data-based models. These historical precedents lacked the data from post-1980s oil markets, making accurate analysis challenging.