The Middle East conflict may push global aluminium price above $4000/t through 2027

CRU forecasts that global aluminum prices will remain above $4,000 per metric tonne between Q3 2026 and Q2 2027 due to a supply deficit primarily caused by the Middle East conflict, including Iranian strikes. The Gulf region accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum supply, and production is expected to fall by around 25% year-on-year. Aluminum prices could reach around $4,020 per tonne in Q3 2026 and rise further to about $4,105 per tonne in Q2 2027.