CIA “이란 3~4개월 버틴다”…美 봉쇄 장기화 전망에 해운업계 ‘단기 종전’ 기대 흔들

The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly expected to be prolonged, leading the global shipping industry to re-evaluate the Hormuz Strait crisis as a structural supply chain risk. The CIA estimates that Iran can withstand the blockade for at least 3-4 months, raising concerns about ship safety and the increase in geopolitical risk premiums. This suggests a shift in energy vessel reliance away from the Middle East and the potential for restructuring in the ship insurance market.