The United States and Iran are reportedly nearing a preliminary Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that includes a halt to uranium enrichment and sanctions relief, as well as the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. While Trump has maintained a high level of military pressure, a pause in the ‘Project Freedom’ operation suggests a shift towards diplomatic negotiations. However, due to internal Iranian resistance and the uncertainty surrounding a final agreement, significant volatility is expected in the global energy market.