Global rice production is projected to increase, but significant threats exist due to the Middle East conflict and the El Niño phenomenon, disrupting supply chains. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and rising agricultural costs in Southeast Asia are key factors, potentially destabilizing food security for import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia. Despite abundant rice stockpiles, the risk of price increases remains high due to worsening supply constraints.