Strait of Hormuz recovery odds fall as Kalshi traders push timeline to late summer

The recovery of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly predicted to be delayed to late summer, reflecting heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran. President Trump issued further threats against Iran, escalating the conflict, while the outlook for a new nuclear deal between the two countries remains bleak. Markets now price a new nuclear deal before September at 37%, before 2027 at 51%, and before 2028 at 65%.