🇮🇷 US-Iran News

Pakistan is attempting to mediate between the US and Iran to de-escalate tensions in West Asia, focusing on Iran's nuclear program. A Pakistani military official visited Tehran to convey messages from Washington, signaling a renewed effort to restart negotiations after previous talks failed. This mediation effort is seen as a last-ditch attempt to break the deadlock between the two countries.

Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have stalled due to a 15-year discrepancy in enrichment freeze terms. The April 30 deadline is approaching, reducing the likelihood of a deal, and the uranium surrender market is highly volatile. Traders are pricing in skepticism, with April 30 contracts trading well below 50% and December 31 contracts trading above 60%.

Pakistan anticipates a breakthrough in Iran’s nuclear negotiations and increased hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire agreement. The market is shifting towards a lower probability of a ceasefire breach and a higher probability of a permanent peace deal. The statements of JD Vance and Abbas Araghchi are expected to significantly impact the markets.

Russia has offered a role in the Iran uranium deal, contributing to the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire talks. As a former participant in the 2015 nuclear agreement, Russia expressed willingness to support Iran’s uranium enrichment rights, potentially through technical assistance. Mediation efforts are underway to extend the ceasefire, with a focus on compromise regarding key disputed points.

Pakistani delegates met in Tehran, hoping to facilitate further US-Iran talks to potentially extend the ceasefire agreement. The US warned of new economic sanctions against countries dealing with Iran and continued its naval blockade. Pakistan is acting as a mediator, seeking compromise on key issues like Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.