The Pentagon is reviewing its military presence in the Middle East following recent Iranian strikes, potentially signaling increased US support for Gulf States considering action against Iran. However, the market has reacted negatively, with odds of military action halving to 5.5%. This thin market is highly susceptible to significant shifts due to large trades.
U.S. President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, creating uncertainty about the next phase of the conflict and negotiations. Simultaneously, the U.S. is bolstering its military presence in the Middle East with the arrival of the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group. This move is seen as a strategic pressure tactic on Tehran while avoiding immediate escalation.