Trump warned of resumed fighting if no deal is reached with Iran, downplaying the likelihood of an agreement on Iran's sanctions relief. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanctions relief in April has risen from 28% a week ago to its current level. Traders remain skeptical about a quick resolution.
President Trump warned of renewed hostilities if no ceasefire deal is reached, dampening market optimism. The market currently assesses a US-Iran ceasefire at April 21st, with Trump's rhetoric reducing the likelihood of a near-term agreement. Markets are pricing in the risk of resumed conflict.
Pete Hegseth warned that the US military is ‘locked and loaded’ to strike Iran, suggesting potential further military action if Tehran fails to reach a deal. He contradicted President Trump’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz is ‘permanently open’ and criticized NATO allies for not assisting with blocking the strait. Rising oil prices are fueling global energy inflation.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the U.S. could strike Iran if the nuclear deal collapses, emphasizing the potential for economic and military pressure. The Trump administration is attempting to exert pressure on Iran through the Strait of Hormuz blockade, arguing that preventing a nuclear attack is a worthwhile trade-off despite rising oil prices. The U.S. Navy is intensifying surveillance of Iranian-flagged vessels and has threatened the use of force if they do not comply with the blockade.