Trump warned of resumed fighting if no deal is reached with Iran, downplaying the likelihood of an agreement on Iran's sanctions relief. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanctions relief in April has risen from 28% a week ago to its current level. Traders remain skeptical about a quick resolution.
President Trump warned of renewed hostilities if no ceasefire deal is reached, dampening market optimism. The market currently assesses a US-Iran ceasefire at April 21st, with Trump's rhetoric reducing the likelihood of a near-term agreement. Markets are pricing in the risk of resumed conflict.