Licenses allowing Russia and Iran to sell oil under US waivers are set to expire soon. While these waivers helped ease global energy shortages, they have also led to increased revenue for both regimes and sustained upward price pressure. Experts suggest reintroducing Russian oil price caps and Iran's escrow account to limit windfall profits and stabilize oil prices.
As the deadline for the US waiver on Russian oil sanctions approaches following the Iran ceasefire, US next steps are under scrutiny. New US-Iran talks are set to begin under Pakistani mediation. President Trump has heightened tensions by threatening tariffs on any country supplying military hardware to Iran.
The Trump administration is expected to extend waivers on Russian oil sanctions, potentially paving the way for similar action on Iranian oil. These waivers signal a shift in sanctions from pure economic pressure to a market leverage tool. Experts remain skeptical about the actual impact of these waivers on global costs.
India has not officially resumed Iranian crude oil imports despite market speculation, stating its energy supply remains stable through diversified sourcing. U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports remain in place, making limited transactions difficult without explicit waivers. India is diversifying its supply chain across the Middle East, US, and Russia to manage geopolitical sensitivities.