Iranian President asserted Iran's nuclear rights, negatively impacting the odds of an April enrichment deal. The market for the agreement is highly volatile due to shallow liquidity, making it vulnerable to swings. Future negotiations, US administration changes, or military posturing could rapidly shift probabilities.
Donald Trump’s comments regarding retrieving Iranian ‘nuclear dust’ have driven down the market for the permanent peace deal, particularly for the deadline of June 30. Odds have increased slightly for a lack of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by that date, reflecting trader skepticism. Trading volume across the peace deal markets exceeded $1.6M.