IAEA Director Rafael Grossi signaled the end of global pressure on Iran regarding its enriched uranium stockpile, suggesting international pressure on Iran is waning. The market anticipates a slower resolution, with current prices indicating a low chance of swift action. Grossi’s remarks could be overtaken by new diplomatic initiatives or escalations.
Seizing Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile would present significant intelligence, military, and logistical challenges, experts warn. The location of the material remains unclear due to the 2025 strikes and suspended inspections, with some suggesting it may have been moved beforehand. The IAEA cannot verify the size or location of Iran’s enriched uranium reserves.
A US military operation to seize Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile would face significant intelligence, military, and logistical hurdles. The location of the material is uncertain, and past precedent shows a lack of Iranian cooperation. The operation would likely involve hundreds, if not over 1,000, personnel under fire.
The NPT summit was held under the shadow of the US-Iran war, with analysts predicting that nuclear powers will continue to violate treaty rules. Discussions will focus on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, and the summit’s very survival as a credible mechanism to prevent nuclear proliferation is now at stake. The breakdown of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal adds to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the NPT.