Pakistan is mediating between the US and Iran, backed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, increasing the odds of a ceasefire extension. Market sentiment towards a ceasefire extension has risen, while the probability of Trump announcing a ceasefire breach by April 21 has collapsed. Traders are focusing their capital on maintaining the ceasefire.
Pakistan’s army commander updated Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya on mediation efforts, stressing ongoing talks. Traders are pricing in the likelihood of an extension in the April 21 market, which holds at institutional involvement. Pakistan is acting as the primary mediator between the US and Iran, and the meeting with Khatam al-Anbiya is the most concrete signal of that effort this week.
Despite the ceasefire, high gas prices in the United States persist due to ongoing global energy supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. This has ripple effects across the economy, including rising transportation costs and heating oil prices, and could take weeks or months to resolve. Geopolitical risks remain a factor, potentially leading to further price increases.
Iranian parliament speaker emphasized the importance of a ceasefire in both Iran and Lebanon, urging the US and Israel to expand the agreement. Lebanon has been drawn into the US-Israel conflict, with Israeli attacks displacing over a million people. US President Donald Trump announced efforts to facilitate a dialogue between Israel and Lebanon.
The United States announced that China has directly assured it will not supply weapons to Iran during the ceasefire. This comes as the US prepares to resume combat operations if negotiations fail, amid heightened concerns about external support for Iran. China stated it will act prudently and responsibly in its military equipment exports.
The U.S. assessed that Iran's military power reconstruction is limited and maintains a military advantage over Iran. A ceasefire negotiation is currently underway, with key issues including Iran's nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for wartime damages. The U.S. announced new economic sanctions against Iran to intensify pressure.
Abdul Malik al-Houthi accused the US of making unreasonable demands during Iran negotiations, attributing the ceasefire to the US and Israel's inability to achieve their objectives in the Iran conflict. He criticized the US's negotiation approach as arrogant. Successful talks could lead to extended stability or the cessation of hostilities.
The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains a pivotal factor in the Middle East conflict, with ceasefire negotiations underway between Iran and the United States. Recent details from a Pentagon briefing have been released regarding the blockade, further fueling regional security concerns. The impact on oil prices is also a key consideration.
Pakistan is mediating to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, set to expire next week. The market for a ceasefire extension by April 21 is active, with significant trading volume. Any public commitment or rejection will likely move this market fast.
The US Defense Secretary stated that Iran’s ‘very high’ motivation to maintain the ceasefire and that US forces are ‘maximally postured’ to resume combat operations if Tehran rejects a deal. Iranian command and control capabilities are ‘significantly degraded,’ limiting operational coordination, but Iran’s ‘high will’ to maintain the ceasefire is evident. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have driven up oil prices and shipping costs.