Clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified in southern Lebanon ahead of high-stakes US-Iran talks. Iran reiterated that peace negotiations in Islamabad will be suspended if attacks in Lebanon continue. Iran denied reports that an Iranian negotiating group had arrived in Pakistan to meet with US officials.
The two-week US-Iran ceasefire is fragile, as Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Face-to-face negotiations are set in Islamabad, with Iran demanding a broader conflict resolution. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed WTI crude near $98 per barrel, pressuring energy markets.
The Jerusalem Centre warns that the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran could collapse at any moment, citing concerns over negotiations in Islamabad. Ongoing Israeli-Lebanon conflict complicates diplomatic efforts, increasing the risk of renewed tensions. Furthermore, President Trump criticized Iran for doing a 'very poor job' of allowing oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
The probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal has risen to 56% as a two-week ceasefire holds and talks continue. High-stakes talks are scheduled for April 12 in Islamabad, which is seen as a key variable for progress. Persistent gaps in uranium enrichment terms remain a source of uncertainty in the negotiations.